Nigeria’s latest oil production claim has renewed attention on the country’s recovery in the upstream petroleum sector, but a comparison with the latest available regulatory figures shows why the distinction between crude oil and total liquid production is important.
The Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Limited, Bashir Bayo Ojulari, said on November 3 that reforms in the oil and gas sector had raised national crude oil production from approximately 1.2 million barrels per day to 1.8 million barrels daily.
Speaking at the 2026 Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, Ojulari attributed the improvement to the Petroleum Industry Act, better investment conditions and closer collaboration with industry operators.
He said the company was targeting two million barrels per day by 2027.
However, the latest nationwide monthly production figures located from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, covering September 2026, show average crude oil production of approximately 1.53 million barrels per day.
When condensate is included, the average rises to approximately 1.717 million barrels per day.
The regulator also reported that production reached a single-day peak of 1.84 million barrels during September.
These distinctions matter because condensate is a liquid hydrocarbon, but it is not the same as crude oil for purposes of comparing production against Nigeria’s crude oil quota.
The NUPRC’s September figures show that Nigeria produced 102 per cent of its 1.5 million barrels-per-day OPEC crude quota, marking the fifth consecutive month the country met or exceeded its allocation.
NNPC’s own September monthly report provides another useful reference point. It lists crude production of approximately 1.455 million barrels per day and condensate production of about 243,810 barrels per day, producing combined output of roughly 1.70 million barrels daily. The company cautioned that its production, sales and financial figures were provisional and subject to reconciliation.
The NNPC chief’s 1.8 million-barrel statement may therefore reflect a rounded total-liquids figure or a more recent production assessment. However, the company did not specify the reference month or provide a detailed breakdown in its announcement.
The figures should not be treated as directly interchangeable without clarification from NNPC and NUPRC.
Beyond production, the regulator has reported progress in domestic crude supply.
It disclosed that more than 127 million barrels of Nigerian crude oil and condensate were supplied to domestic refineries between January and September 2026.
Supplies amounted to 53.7 million barrels in the second quarter and 45.1 million barrels in the third quarter, with the regulator reporting delivery performance of 97.4 per cent and 76.2 per cent respectively.
The commission is also considering a domestic crude-swap arrangement that could reduce transportation costs by an estimated $3 to $4 per barrel by allowing refiners to obtain suitable crude from closer production or export points.
The next challenge is to sustain production gains, improve crude evacuation, ensure reliable refinery feedstock and demonstrate that higher output is translating into stronger export earnings and domestic industrial benefits.
