Nigeria’s domestic refineries received more than 127 million barrels of locally produced crude and condensate in the first nine months of 2026, but the latest regulatory figures reveal a significant reduction in deliveries during the third quarter.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission said 53.7 million barrels were supplied to domestic refineries in the second quarter, compared with 45.1 million barrels in the third quarter.
The decline of 8.6 million barrels represents approximately 16 per cent.
The regulator also reported that delivery performance fell from 97.4 per cent in Q2 to 76.2 per cent in Q3.
The figures were disclosed by the commission’s chief executive, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, in an address delivered at the OTL Africa Downstream Energy Week in Lagos on October 26.
She said commercial disagreements between producers and refiners had affected crude supplies during the first quarter, prompting regulatory intervention to improve deliveries.
The regulator’s disclosure is important because it provides a measure of the crude supply reaching domestic refining operations, rather than relying solely on national production figures.
Under Section 109 of the Petroleum Industry Act 2021, the commission allocates crude oil to domestic refineries before export.
However, the volume supplied to refineries should not be confused with the quantity actually processed into petrol, diesel, aviation fuel and other petroleum products.
A refinery may receive crude but still face operational, technical, storage or commercial constraints that affect how much it processes.
The regulator is also consulting producers, refiners and other industry stakeholders on a domestic crude-swap framework.
Under the proposed arrangement, a refinery could receive crude from a closer production or export point rather than transport an allocated grade over a longer distance.
NUPRC estimates that the arrangement could remove approximately $3 to $4 from the transportation cost of each barrel.
The proposal could improve the economics of domestic refining, particularly for operators facing high logistics costs.
Nevertheless, the decline in Q3 deliveries raises questions about the reliability of the domestic crude supply arrangement.
For the government, the objective should be to ensure that increased national production translates into consistent feedstock availability for local refineries.
That requires transparent allocation records, timely deliveries, commercial agreements that can be enforced and public reporting of actual refinery receipts and processing volumes.
