BENJAMIN OMOIKE
The United Nations says large-scale oil theft and the recent cash scarcity crippled the Nigerian economy and strained finances.
In a new report, titled, ‘Trade and Development Report Update: Global Trends and Prospects’, for April 2023, the intergovernmental organisation said the scarcity affected the informal sector the most.
The report was produced by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), an arm of the United Nations that promotes the interests of developing countries in world trade.
“In Nigeria, a shortage of cash, triggered by the replacement of the highest denominations of the country’s currency, hobbled the economy, especially the informal sector,” UN said.
“Meanwhile, the continuing decline of oil production, accompanied by large-scale oil theft, poses a main threat to strained finances in Africa’s most populous nation.”
The UN also projected that the general African economy will expand by 2.5 percent, which is a drop from last year, and “at a pace insufficient to make a dent in poverty levels”.
Like in other developing regions, the UN report explains, “weaker external demand and tighter financial conditions have made growth prospects gloomier for the region.”
“In the case of commodity exporters, the fading of the initial effects of the 2022 price boom will add to the equation,” the report said.
“Rising global interest rates have triggered significant capital outflows and have further constrained fiscal space, at a time when public finances were already severely affected by costly subsidy schemes aiming at contending the adverse effects of high food and energy prices.”
‘African Economies At Risk Of Stagflation In 2023’
The United Nations also said, with half of African countries recording double-digit inflation in early 2023, many are at risk of stagflation in 2023.
Stagflation is an economic cycle characterised by slow growth and a high unemployment rate accompanied by inflation.
According to experts, a stagflationary situation presents a dilemma for economic policy, since actions intended to lower inflation may exacerbate unemployment.
‘The risk of stagflation is a key concern for many African economies. In approximately half of the countries, inflation remained double digits in early 2023,” UN said.
“In many instances, these recent inflation spikes relate to the continuing depreciation of several African currencies in early 2023 — often following a loss in 2022 of 10-30 per-cent of their value vis-à-vis the dollar.
“Public debt, in many cases standing at levels not seen since the early 2000s, is another worry across the continent. Out of the 38 African countries that are part of the Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) of the IMF and World Bank, eight entities are already ‘in debt distress’, while 13 are considered ‘at high risk’ of distress.
“Furthermore, many African economies are approaching a maturity wall as maturities on international bonds issued in the previous decade are expected to peak in 2024 and to remain elevated for the next decade, with most governments unable to tap international capital markets to roll over maturing debts.”
