Nigeria’s merchandise trade surplus has expanded substantially, but the composition of the country’s exports reveals that the economy remains heavily dependent on petroleum earnings, with agriculture and manufacturing yet to make a comparable contribution to international trade.
The latest second-quarter 2026 foreign trade statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics put total merchandise trade at ₦41.44 trillion, comprising exports of ₦27.02 trillion and imports of ₦14.42 trillion. This produced a trade surplus of approximately ₦12.60 trillion.
However, the headline surplus conceals a significant concentration of export earnings.
Crude oil exports were valued at ₦12.91 trillion, while other petroleum oil products contributed another ₦10.38 trillion. Together, the two categories accounted for approximately 86.2 per cent of total export earnings during the quarter.
Non-oil products contributed only ₦3.72 trillion, representing 13.8 per cent of exports.
The imbalance becomes more apparent when agricultural and manufactured goods are examined.
Agricultural exports stood at approximately ₦802.99 billion, against imports of about ₦1.20 trillion. This left the agricultural trade account with a deficit of approximately ₦397 billion.
Manufactured goods presented an even wider gap. Nigeria imported manufactured products worth ₦9.51 trillion, while exports in the category amounted to only about ₦393.03 billion.
The figures expose a structural weakness in the country’s trade performance: Nigeria can record a sizeable trade surplus without achieving a corresponding transformation in domestic production capacity.
The petroleum sector continues to provide the earnings that support the surplus, while the country remains dependent on imported manufactured goods and significant quantities of agricultural products.
This distinction matters because a trade surplus does not automatically demonstrate that local industries are becoming more competitive. It can also reflect higher petroleum export earnings, lower import values or changes in international prices and exchange rates.
The figures are expressed in naira and therefore should not be interpreted as direct measurements of physical export volumes. Nevertheless, the composition of trade provides an important indication of where Nigeria’s export strength and import dependence remain concentrated.
The challenge for economic policymakers is to turn the current trade surplus into a platform for expanding non-oil exports, increasing domestic manufacturing capacity and reducing the country’s dependence on imported agricultural and industrial products.
