A situation report by Alh. Abdulbaki Ibrahim, Public Affairs Analyst, Kano
Executive Summary
Jigawa is the most stable state in the North-West today. Governor Umar Namadi (APC) has achieved near-total political dominance through inclusive governance and mass defections.
Present Situation
Governor Namadi has declared that opposition has “ceased to exist” after the entire NNPP structure across all 27 LGAs collapsed into APC.
Dateline: Dutse, Jigawa State
6 am, Limawa Ward,15 polling units.
Hajia Ladi, a beans seller who has voted NNPP since Kwankwaso’s first coming, leaned over her tray and whispered: “We are all APC now. Not because Namadi gave us money. Because he comes without siren. He asked about my grandson’s school.”
That whisper is louder than any rally in Jigawa today.
THE DAY OPPOSITION DIED
On the morning of October 9th, Jigawa woke up to a political earthquake that made no noise.
Alhaji Shehu Garu, the man who built NNPP structure across all 27 LGAs- from Babura to Birniwa, from Guri to Gwaram, walked into APC Secretariat in Dutse with 27 LGA chairmen, 287 ward chairmen, and their registers. Not photocopies — original registers with thumbprints. He said: “We have ceased to exist as opposition.”
Governor Umar Namadi, Dan Modi, looked at the registers, smiled, and said: “You have not defected. You have returned home.”
Three days later, Kaugama: 1,212 PDP members led by former LG Chairman Alhaji Abubakar Kafin-Hausa.
Same day, Maigatari border town: 500 PDP members including youth leader who once led anti-APC protest in 2023.
They all said same thing: Namadi does not discriminate — projects in Dutse, same in Kaugama. Roads in Hadejia, same in Maigatari.
But the real suspense was Limawa Ward, Dutse — 15 polling units that PDP won in 2023 presidential.
On 15th October, 10,000 supporters — former PDP and ADC members — defected. Their leader: “We were deceived that Namadi is Abuja man. He is Dutse man. He farms with us.”
THE FULANI ENDORSEMENT — OCTOBER 17
Then came the Fulani. On October 17th, Ardos from all 27 LGAs gathered at Maigatari grazing reserve. Old man of 78, Ardo Bello of Kazaure, stood: “For 30 years, we fought farmers. Government brought police. Namadi brought water. He created Ministry of Livestock at federal, but implemented it here — gazetted grazing reserves, provided water points, settled 400 conflicts without firing bullet. We endorse Tinubu and Namadi.”
While Zamfara burns with banditry, while Katsina cries, Jigawa is quiet because cows drink and farmers farm side by side.
THE WOUND: 3 SEATS LOST IN JIGAWA CENTRAL
But here is the suspense — Jigawa is not 100%.
In 2023, APC lost 3 National Assembly seats in Jigawa Central — Dutse, Ringim, Taura axis — to PDP.
How? Complacency. Candidate imposition. One aspirant in Taura told me: “I was told to step down for ‘Abuja anointed.’ I stepped into PDP and won.”
Governor Namadi knows. He set up 4-man committee headed by Speaker Haruna Dangyatin, a man known for not laughing in politics.
Task: reclaim those 3 seats by 2027. Committee has toured all 27 LGAs, not with money, but with question: “Why did you leave us?”
Answer is consistent: lack of internal democracy.
WHO HAS UPPER HAND?
Governor Namadi and APC — clearly. Opposition structures dissolved. Even PDP chieftains in private praise his non-discriminatory projects — schools in Gumel, irrigation in Hadejia, health upgrades in Kazaure.
Projection for 2027:
Open race between APC and ADC. But APC remains party to beat due to organizational strength — IF primary is transparent.
Because ADC is eating PDP’s lunch in North West, but ADC can also eat APC’s dinner if APC imposes candidates.
HOW TO CONTAIN / SUBDUE
For North West Development Commission (established to rebuild infrastructure, tackle poverty, rehabilitate displaced, 7 states, 186 LGAs, 80 million people), Jigawa is model:
1.Avoid complacency: Dominance should not breed imposition. Ensure transparent primary — else aggrieved join ADC/NDC.
2.Sustain farmer-herder peace:
Jigawa’s advantage is peace while neighbors suffer banditry. Keep grazing reserves gazetted, provide water points, fund Ministry of Livestock at state level.
3.Focus on agriculture and education, not just defections: To defend 3 lost seats, show irrigation projects, not just defection photos
