Libya generated $15.23 billion from oil exports in the first half of 2026, exceeding its revenue target despite producing six million fewer barrels than planned.
•Libya earned $15.23 billion from oil exports during the first six months of 2026.
•Revenue exceeded the government’s target by approximately $1.25 billion, or 8.9%.
•Crude production reached 246 million barrels, six million barrels below target.
•The IMF has warned Libya to save the windfall as its fiscal deficit and public debt remain dangerously high.
The figures show how higher global oil prices have delivered a windfall to the holder of Africa’s largest proven crude reserves, even as political divisions, uncontrolled government spending and renewed attacks on energy infrastructure threaten the gains.
Libya’s Ministry of Economy and Trade said foreign-currency earnings from oil exports reached $15.234 billion between January and June, compared with a target of $13.985 billion.
That put revenue approximately $1.25 billion, or 8.9%, above target.
The ministry stated that revenue was 11.5% above target, but a calculation using the two figures it published produces an increase of approximately 8.9%.
Oil revenue transferred to the national budget reached LYD96.74 billion, compared with a target of LYD89.7 billion.
Crude oil production, however, fell short of expectations. Libya produced 246 million barrels during the six months, against a target of 252 million barrels.
The total is equivalent to average production of approximately 1.36 million barrels per day.
Part of that production was retained to supply the domestic market and power stations rather than exported.
The combination of lower-than-planned production and higher-than-expected revenue reflects the rise in international oil prices during the first half of the year, particularly after conflict in the Middle East disrupted supplies and increased demand for crude produced outside the region.
Libya’s light, low-sulphur crude became more attractive to European refiners searching for alternative supplies.
Libya closes in on 1.5 million barrels per day
Production strengthened towards the end of the six-month period.
The National Oil Corporation said crude output reached 1.439 million barrels per day on June 21, its highest level since 2013. Including condensates, total production stood at nearly 1.49 million barrels per day.
Libya is targeting crude production of 1.5 million barrels per day before the end of 2026, with longer-term plans to raise output to two million barrels per day.
The country has been courting foreign companies and reopening its energy industry after years of underinvestment and repeated shutdowns.
In January, Libya signed a 25-year agreement involving TotalEnergies and ConocoPhillips that is expected to attract more than $20 billion in investment into Waha Oil Company’s operations.
The government said the agreement could eventually add as much as 850,000 barrels per day to production capacity and generate more than $376 billion in net revenue over its lifetime.
Libya also launched its first oil exploration bidding round in more than 17 years as it seeks investment to rehabilitate ageing fields, pipelines and export terminals.
Oil windfall collides with fiscal crisis
The increased revenue comes as Libya attempts to coordinate public spending between its rival eastern and western authorities.
The country’s House of Representatives and High Council of State signed a unified spending agreement at the Central Bank of Libya in April. It was presented as the first consensus on national spending in more than 13 years.
The Economy Ministry said the stronger oil revenue demonstrated progress in implementing the agreement and improving coordination among state institutions.
However, the International Monetary Fund has warned that Libya’s current fiscal position remains unsustainable.
The IMF estimated that the fiscal deficit reached approximately 30% of gross domestic product in 2025, while public debt almost doubled within two years to 146% of GDP.
Government wages consume about 30% of GDP, while energy subsidies account for another 20%, placing Libya among the countries with the world’s largest public wage and subsidy burdens.
The fund warned in April that spending the temporary oil windfall could worsen Libya’s vulnerabilities by creating obligations that would be difficult to reverse when crude prices fall.
It advised the authorities to save part of the additional revenue, rebuild financial buffers and accelerate reforms to wages, subsidies and public investment.
Despite higher oil earnings and two currency devaluations since April 2025, the gap between Libya’s official and parallel-market exchange rates remains significant. Inflation has also risen into double digits, reducing household purchasing power.
Hydrocarbons account for approximately 95% of Libya’s exports and government revenue, leaving public finances heavily exposed to production disruptions and fluctuations in international prices.
Security remains the biggest threat
The latest earnings also remain vulnerable to Libya’s fragmented security environment.
The country is divided between the internationally recognised government in Tripoli and a rival eastern administration supported by military commander Khalifa Haftar. Armed groups retain influence over oilfields, pipelines, ports and government institutions.
Libya’s production has repeatedly been halted by protests, political disputes and armed confrontations since the 2011 overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi.
That risk resurfaced in August after drone attacks caused fires at the Zawiya oil complex, which includes Libya’s largest refinery and infrastructure connected to the 300,000-barrel-per-day Sharara oilfield.
The National Oil Corporation brought the fires under control and said the refinery escaped serious damage. However, it warned that continued attacks could force it to suspend operations.
The $15.2 billion earned during the first half of 2026 demonstrates Libya’s ability to benefit rapidly from higher production and prices. Whether that windfall improves living standards will depend on the country’s ability to control spending, protect its energy infrastructure and prevent oil revenue from becoming another source of competition between rival political factions.
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