More than 2.7 million additional lives could be saved during a future pandemic if vaccines were distributed according to population needs rather than countries’ ability to pay, according to new research.
Researchers modelled a hypothetical global influenza pandemic and found that speeding up vaccine development could reduce the number of deaths from an estimated 58.5 million to 23.9 million.
However, the benefits would not be evenly spread.
In high-income countries, deaths would increase from about 2.4 million to 3.9 million under an allocation system based on population rather than purchasing power.
The findings are part of a report by the NUS-Lancet Commission on Pandemic Preparedness, which argues that preparing for future outbreaks requires more than expanding medical and technical capacity.
The commission says governments should build systems that can reach vulnerable communities, maintain public trust and ensure that vaccines, treatments and other resources are available where they are most needed.
“Cooperation and solidarity saves the lives of essential first responders, including the health workers who can help stop a pandemic,” said Helen Clark, former prime minister of New Zealand and co-chair of the commission.
She said greater equity would reduce deaths globally while giving vulnerable populations a fairer chance of receiving protection.
The modelling also found that improving public confidence in vaccines could prevent a further 1.9 million deaths.
Lessons from Covid
The commission’s researchers gathered evidence in 20 countries from communities that had experienced severe disruption during Covid-19 or other crises.
Those studied included homeless people in Indonesia, internally displaced people in Ethiopia and families in the UK who had lost relatives to Covid-19.
The research found that social and economic conditions can determine how exposed people are to disease and whether they can access help during an outbreak.
“A person living in a crowded apartment cannot socially isolate, a person with no identity papers cannot access a government payment, and a person who doesn’t speak the dominant language cannot understand health advice,” said Professor Helena Legido-Quigley of Imperial College London, a commission co-chair.
The commission argues that these barriers are often overlooked by conventional pandemic preparedness plans, which tend to focus on whether countries have the necessary technical and medical capabilities.
It says preparedness should also consider whether those resources can actually reach people who need them.
Africa and vaccine access
The issue is particularly significant for countries that struggled to secure Covid-19 vaccines during the pandemic.
Dr Githinji Gitahi, global CEO of Amref Health Africa, said many African countries had been “at the back of the queue” for Covid vaccines.
He described the new modelling as “both compelling and deeply sobering”, arguing that national pandemic plans must reflect the realities faced by communities.
“Plans written in conference rooms in capital cities often fail to reflect the realities that determine whether people can isolate, obtain reliable information, access care or receive a vaccine,” Gitahi said.
He also stressed the importance of building trust before an outbreak begins.
The commission recommends that governments involve communities directly in pandemic planning and make themselves accountable for ensuring that protection reaches those most at risk.
The report was published ahead of a United Nations high-level meeting on pandemic preparedness in New York, where governments are expected to discuss lessons from Covid-19 and how to strengthen global preparedness for future outbreaks.
The NUS-Lancet Commission was established in 2023 by the National University of Singapore and The Lancet. It brings together 41 experts from fields including health, finance, planning and community development.
Africanews
