NIGERIA: The Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room has warned that Nigeria’s democracy is facing mounting threats ahead of the 2027 general elections, citing rising voter intimidation, political violence, inflammatory rhetoric, abuse of public office and the apparent failure of institutions to hold powerful political actors accountable.
The group issued the warning in a statement on Tuesday, September 15, to mark the International Day of Democracy, saying the credibility of the 2027 elections would depend not only on what happens on election day but also on the political environment and institutional safeguards established in the months preceding the polls.
The Situation Room said the country was experiencing a widening gap between citizens’ expectations of democracy and their experience of democratic governance, pointing to declining public trust in key institutions and growing concerns over electoral integrity, accountability and the rule of law.
It cited an Afrobarometer survey which reported that 77 per cent of Nigerians were dissatisfied with the way democracy was working, while only 23 per cent expressed trust in the Independent National Electoral Commission.
However, the civil society coalition stressed that the figures did not mean Nigerians had rejected democracy, noting that 64 per cent still preferred democracy to any other form of government.
According to the group, the figures instead point to “a crisis of democratic delivery, institutional trust and accountability” rather than a rejection of democratic government.
The Situation Room further cited international governance assessments, saying the V-Dem Institute classifies Nigeria as an “Electoral Autocracy”, while the 2024 Mo Ibrahim Index of African Governance ranked the country 33rd out of 54 African countries, down from 30th previously.
“Taken together, these findings demonstrate a widening gap between citizens’ expectations of democracy and their experience of it,” the group said.
It added that Nigerians continued to value democratic government but were increasingly dissatisfied with its performance and distrustful of institutions expected to protect their rights.
The coalition expressed particular concern over what it described as the deterioration of the political environment in recent months, saying threats, intimidation and violence were increasingly being used to suppress opposition, restrict political participation and undermine citizens’ freedoms.
It cited the recent governorship election in Osun State as an example, saying reports of intimidation and violence, including allegations involving high-ranking political officeholders, raised serious concerns about the protection of democratic participation.
“When individuals entrusted with public authority become associated with conduct that undermines democratic participation, the consequences extend beyond individual incidents. They erode confidence in the political system itself,” it said.
The Situation Room identified institutional failure and impunity, voter intimidation and inflammatory political rhetoric, forced disenfranchisement and threats of displacement, abuse of public office, the weaponisation of ethnicity and religion, and political thuggery and voter suppression as critical threats requiring urgent intervention.
It called on the Independent National Electoral Commission, security agencies, prosecutorial authorities and the Judiciary to demonstrate greater independence and effectiveness in dealing with electoral violations.
The group warned that delayed or inconclusive responses to allegations of electoral offences, intimidation, incitement and violence involving politically influential individuals could encourage impunity.
“A democracy cannot survive where the powerful are permitted to violate the rules with impunity while ordinary citizens bear the consequences,” it said.
The coalition also condemned reported threats against citizens over their political choices, including alleged directives telling residents to vote for the ruling All Progressives Congress or leave their communities.
It said no Nigerian should be forced to choose between exercising a constitutional right and protecting their personal safety, livelihood or place of residence.
The Situation Room equally expressed concern over alleged attempts to use government appointments, removals and administrative powers to compel political loyalty, saying public office should not be deployed as an instrument for securing electoral advantage.
It warned against the growing use of ethnic and religious identities for political mobilisation, urging political leaders, religious and traditional authorities, the media and other influential actors to promote inclusion and peaceful coexistence.
The group further condemned political thuggery, attacks on opponents and obstruction of candidates, insisting that security agencies must provide equal protection to all political actors and citizens irrespective of their political affiliation or status.
As part of its national call for action, the Situation Room urged authorities to enforce electoral laws and prosecute violations, guarantee the neutrality of public institutions, protect fundamental rights and civic freedoms, hold political parties and leaders accountable, and strengthen institutional accountability and electoral preparedness.
It said Nigeria could not afford to approach the 2027 elections as “business as usual”, stressing that electoral credibility was built long before voters cast their ballots.
“The credibility of an election is built long before the first ballot is cast,” the group said, adding that citizens must be free to participate, campaign, vote and express their political preferences without intimidation.
The coalition also announced plans to intensify its monitoring of Nigeria’s political and electoral environment ahead of 2027.
Its monitoring, it said, would focus on electoral preparedness, the conduct of political parties and actors, campaign financing and abuse of public resources, electoral violence, intimidation and hate speech, misinformation and disinformation, citizen participation and civic freedoms, as well as the independence and accountability of institutions responsible for the electoral process.
The Situation Room said it would work with citizens, civil society organisations, democratic institutions, the media and other stakeholders to identify emerging threats and bring them to public attention.
