NIGERIA: Nigeria recorded a ₦12.60 trillion merchandise trade surplus in the second quarter of 2026, more than doubling the balance a year earlier, but crude oil and other petroleum products still accounted for about 86 per cent of export earnings.
The figures, contained in the National Bureau of Statistics’ Q2 2026 Foreign Trade in Goods report, show that total merchandise trade stood at ₦41.44 trillion between April and June.
Exports rose to ₦27.02 trillion, representing an 18.77 per cent increase over the corresponding period of 2025, while imports fell by 12.55 per cent to ₦14.42 trillion. The resulting trade surplus of ₦12.60 trillion was 101.32 per cent higher than the ₦6.26 trillion recorded in Q2 2025.
However, the composition of the exports highlights Nigeria’s continuing dependence on petroleum-related earnings.
Crude oil exports were valued at ₦12.91 trillion, representing 47.79 per cent of total exports. Other petroleum products contributed another ₦10.38 trillion, or 38.40 per cent.
Combined, the two categories accounted for approximately 86.2 per cent of the country’s export value during the quarter.
The contribution from other productive sectors remained considerably smaller. Agricultural exports stood at ₦802.99 billion, manufactured goods at ₦393.03 billion and solid minerals at ₦146.91 billion.
The figures suggest that the widening trade surplus, although positive for Nigeria’s external position, has not yet translated into a sufficiently diversified export base capable of reducing the economy’s exposure to movements in international oil prices and domestic production disruptions.
The World Bank’s October 8 Nigeria Development Update provides further evidence of an improving external position. It said Nigeria’s current account surplus rose to $12 billion, equivalent to 7.1 per cent of GDP, in the first half of 2026, compared with $8.6 billion, or 6.7 per cent of GDP, a year earlier.
Gross external reserves also rose above $54 billion in September, supported substantially by foreign portfolio inflows.
The World Bank said real GDP grew by 4.2 per cent in the first half of 2026, compared with 3.9 per cent and 3.5 per cent in the corresponding periods of 2025 and 2024 respectively. Services remained the main growth driver, alongside a stronger contribution from agriculture.
Nevertheless, the improvement in output and external balances has not removed pressure on household purchasing power.
The National Bureau of Statistics reported that headline inflation eased to 14.63 per cent in September from 15.39 per cent in August. Food inflation, however, remained elevated at 19.59 per cent year-on-year.
The central economic challenge is therefore shifting from stabilising key macroeconomic indicators to expanding productive capacity, creating jobs and ensuring that stronger export earnings are sustained by a broader range of Nigerian goods and services.
Without a significant expansion in non-petroleum exports, the country’s improving trade position will remain vulnerable to oil-market volatility.
