By Alh. Abdulbaki Ibrahim, Public Affairs Analyst, Kano
Katsina, the home state of late President Muhammadu Buhari, has entered a critical phase ahead of the February 6, 2027 governorship election.
While Governor Dikko Umaru Radda (APC) has secured his party’s ticket by consensus and inaugurated the Tinubu/Dikko 2027 Campaign Council, the state is witnessing an unprecedented internal APC battle and a resurgent opposition led by ADC.
Unlike Kaduna where APC dominance is consolidating, Katsina is a case of dominance under stress.
PRESENT SITUATION
The Ruling APC – Strength on Paper, Cracks Within:
Consolidation: Governor Radda was affirmed by 2,872 delegates at People’s Square, Government House. All 34 members of the State House of Assembly and National Assembly members from Katsina led by Sada Soli Jibia have endorsed him for second term. INEC has listed him with Deputy Gov. Faruk Lawal as running mate.
Campaign Structure:
On October 17, 2026, he inaugurated the Tinubu/Dikko Campaign Council chaired by himself, with Deputy Gov. Faruk Lawal as Co-Chair, Sen. Hadi Sirika as Co-Chair II, and Arc. Ahmed Musa Dangiwa as Director-General.
Campaign kick-off is fixed for October 28.
Former Governors Aminu Masari and Ibrahim Shema are listed as Grand Patrons.
Former Gov. Masari donated N160m to ward-level mobilizers.
The Internal Rift:
The biggest challenge is not opposition, but a rift between Radda’s camp and the camp of *Ibrahim Kabir Masari, Special Adviser to President Tinubu on Political Affairs* (the Abuja-Katsina camp). Within days (Oct 5-6), five key appointees resigned: Commander-General Hisbah, Dr. Abu Ammar, his Deputy Muhammad Shitu Maslaha, Chairman Pilgrims Board Kabir Bature, SSA on Project Monitoring Fadila Dalhatu, and SA on Youth Development Abubakar Soja Tsanni. Sources link them to Masari’s camp.
The rift escalated when Radda’s ADC, SP Abdulganiyu Bello, and CSO, DSP Hassan Bello, were quizzed by police in Abuja over destruction of billboards bearing Masari and Tinubu along Modoji Junction Road.
The governor himself recently warned politicians to “deliver your wards to Tinubu or face consequences” and asked for forgiveness, signaling anxiety.
The Opposition – ADC as Main Challenger:
ADC:
Sen. Ahmad Babba Kaita (Katsina North) is governorship candidate with Aminu Yar’Adua as deputy. The party unveiled a 141,107-member structure across 34 LGAs for Atiku Abubakar’s presidential bid.
Kaita is campaigning on insecurity, poverty and bad governance, calling 2027 a chance to “vote out bad leaders” as Katsina marks 39 years of creation.
However, ADC faces a legitimacy crisis: A rival, Salisu Uli, has challenged Kaita’s nomination in court, claiming no valid primary was held on the stipulated date.
INEC listed Kaita, but court hearing is set for October 19.
Former SSG Mustapha Inuwa also left ADC in August.
Regional Compact:
Kaita joined 6 other North-West ADC candidates (led by Abubakar Malami) to sign the North-West Compact 2027-2031, pledging N110,000 minimum wage, reintroduction of fuel subsidy, and a technology-enabled surveillance network across 21 senatorial districts.
They cited alarming data: over 16,000 lives lost to insecurity between June 2023-Aug 2026, 1,583 kidnappings, and 533,000 hectares of farmland abandoned in Zamfara and Katsina alone.
PDP:
Garba Yakubu Lado is INEC-listed candidate.
PDP remains relevant because it won Katsina in the 2023 presidential election despite losing governorship.
Wike’s backing for Tinubu complicates its 2027 outlook.
WHO HAS THE UPPER HAND?
Technically, APC still has the upper hand due to control of government, LGA structures, and federal alignment. But psychologically, the upper hand is contested:
In Kaduna, APC’s challenge is *external opposition* . In Katsina, APC’s challenge is *internal civil war*.
If the Radda-Masari rift is not contained, it could split votes at ward level, as Masari controls significant grassroots network from Daura and beyond.
ADC’s 141k structure is real, but its ability to convert anger over banditry and hunger into votes depends on whether it resolves its court case and presents a united front.
Katsina voters are less concerned with billboard dominance and more with: _Can I go to my farm? Can my child go to school?_ 45% of Nigeria’s out-of-school children are in North-West.
HOW TO CONTAIN OR SUBDUE TENSION
For APC Leadership:
Immediate reconciliation meeting between Gov. Radda and Ibrahim Masari brokered by former Govs. Masari and Shema and President Tinubu.
The public quarrel over billboards and Hisbah resignations must stop.
Stop threats of “consequences” for non-delivery of wards; instead, encourage forgiveness as the governor himself preached.
Unify campaign council — include all three zonal directors (Katsina South – Bature Masari, North – Gwajo-Gwajo, Central – Prof. Charanchi) in decision-making.
For Opposition:
ADC must resolve Kaita vs Uli quickly through internal mechanism before court decides, or risk being disqualified.
Focus campaign on security solutions, not just criticism.
The North-West Compact is a good start but must be localized to Katsina’s 34 LGAs.
For Security Agencies:
Katsina has suffered more than most from banditry. Sustained military operations must continue in Batsari, Jibia, Kankara, Dutsin-Ma axis to allow farmers to return before dry season.
Police must remain neutral in APC intra-party dispute and not be used to harass either camp.
For INEC and Traditional Institutions:
Emir of Katsina and Emir of Daura should convene peace meeting of all candidates.
INEC should monitor premature vote-buying through the N160m ward donation.
5. CONCLUSION
Katsina’s politics has moved from “Buhari’s bloc vote” to “Radda vs The Rest Within APC.”
Governor Radda has the structures, but structures without unity cannot deliver.
The ADC has the message of insecurity and hardship, but message without unity cannot win.
Whoever contains his own internal crisis first will have the upper hand in February 2027.
Katsina, more than Kaduna, needs statesmanship now.
