Osun 2026: How Adeleke Outsmarted AMBO, APC, Opposition To Secure Second Term

0
20 views

PAUL POPOOLA

OSUN, Nigeria – Governor Ademola Adeleke has secured a second term as Governor of Osun State after defeating his closest challenger, All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji, popularly known as AMBO, in Saturday’s governorship election.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared Adeleke of the Accord Party winner after the collation of results from all 30 local government areas of the state.

Adeleke polled 511,067 votes, while Oyebamiji secured 444,815 votes, giving the incumbent a winning margin of 66,252 votes. African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate Najeem Salaam finished a distant third with 17,180 votes.

The State Returning Officer, Prof. Joshua Ogunwole, formally declared Adeleke winner at the INEC collation centre in Osogbo in the early hours of Sunday.

How Adeleke won

Adeleke’s victory was built largely on his dominance across 19 of Osun’s 30 LGAs, while AMBO won 11 councils.

The Accord candidate secured victories in Boluwaduro, Ede South, Ife North, Ilesa West, Ifedayo, Ife Central, Orolu, Osogbo, Oriade, Odo-Otin, Ife East, Ifelodun, Iwo, Ede North, Ila, Aiyedire, Egbedore, Aiyedaade and Ejigbo.

Oyebamiji, on the other hand, won Ilesa East, Boripe, Irepodun, Obokun, Atakunmosa West, Irewole, Atakunmosa East, Isokan, Ola-Oluwa, Ife South and Olorunda.

Despite AMBO’s victories in several councils, particularly in parts of Osun East and the Irewole axis, Adeleke’s margins in several of his strongholds proved decisive.

For instance, Adeleke recorded a major advantage in Ede South, where he polled 26,188 votes against AMBO’s 6,219. He also won Osogbo with 36,480 votes to the APC candidate’s 30,474. In Ife Central, Adeleke secured 21,171 votes against 15,913 for Oyebamiji.

The 66,252-vote advantage

The final figures show that Adeleke did not merely scrape through.

His 511,067 votes represented a substantial lead over Oyebamiji’s 444,815 votes. The 66,252-vote difference was large enough to withstand the APC candidate’s strong performances in 11 LGAs.

The ADC’s 17,180 votes also meant that the opposition vote was divided among the major challengers, although it would be difficult to determine from the aggregate figures alone how many ADC votes would otherwise have gone to either of the two leading candidates.

Incumbency and Adeleke’s grassroots advantage

Adeleke entered the election as the sitting governor with the advantages that come with incumbency, including visibility from government programmes, public projects and direct contact with voters.

An analysis published before the election noted that Adeleke retained considerable support in his home base of Ede and across significant parts of Osun West. The district had been an important battleground in previous governorship elections.

His political style also remained a distinctive feature of his campaign. His public appearances, accessibility and highly visible personality had helped him maintain a strong connection with sections of the electorate.

AMBO’s challenge

Oyebamiji was not an easy opponent.

The APC candidate secured 11 LGAs and won several areas where the party had substantial organisational strength. His victories included Ilesa East, Boripe, Irepodun and Obokun, among others.

The election was therefore a competitive two-horse race in which the APC candidate managed to hold large portions of the state, but Adeleke ultimately accumulated enough votes in his winning LGAs to secure re-election.

The APC campaign also entered the contest with significant expectations, particularly because the party controlled local government structures in the state ahead of the election. Analysts had identified those structures as potentially important to the outcome.

The ADC factor

Najeem Salaam of the ADC finished third with 17,180 votes.

Salaam was himself a prominent Osun politician and former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly. His participation added another significant political bloc to an election that was otherwise dominated by Adeleke and Oyebamiji.

The ADC’s presence meant that the contest was not simply a straightforward APC-versus-Accord battle.

Interestingly, shortly before the election, a faction of the Accord Party led by Prof. Christopher Imumolen announced its withdrawal of support for Adeleke and endorsed Oyebamiji.

That development, however, failed to prevent Adeleke from retaining power.

A dramatic reversal from the pre-election calculations

The result also represents a notable victory for Adeleke given the political challenges he faced before the poll.

Ahead of the election, analysts had pointed to the APC’s control of local government structures and the influence of competing political forces as potential obstacles to the governor’s re-election.

There were also controversies surrounding security arrangements, alleged arrests of political supporters and accusations of vote buying, all of which heightened tensions in the build-up to the election. The police and other actors disputed some of the allegations.

Yet when the votes were counted, Adeleke emerged with a clear majority.

What the victory means for Adeleke

The result gives Adeleke another four years at the helm of Osun State and strengthens his political position ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 general elections.

It also represents a significant political setback for the APC in a state where the party had hoped to reclaim the governorship.

For Adeleke, the victory is particularly significant because he contested under the Accord Party after leaving the Peoples Democratic Party amid a leadership crisis.

He has now demonstrated that he could win re-election despite changing political platforms and facing a formidable APC challenger.

A repeat of Adeleke’s winning formula?

Adeleke’s first victory came in the 2022 governorship election, when he defeated the then-incumbent APC governor, Gboyega Oyetola, with 403,371 votes to Oyetola’s 375,027.

Four years later, Adeleke has not only retained the governorship but has increased his winning total to 511,067 votes.

The 2026 result therefore gives him a stronger numerical mandate than the one with which he first entered the Government House.

Final result

2026 Osun Governorship Election

– Ademola Adeleke (Accord): 511,067

– Bola Oyebamiji/AMBO (APC): 444,815

– Najeem Salaam (ADC): 17,180

– Winning margin: 66,252 votes

– LGAs won by Adeleke: 19

– LGAs won by AMBO: 11

INEC’s declaration formally secured Adeleke’s second term as Governor of Osun State.

The result is also likely to generate intense political debate beyond Osun, particularly over what the election says about voter behaviour, opposition strength and the wider political calculations ahead of 2027.